KNaranek's profile

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Quest item cards (brown book logo) - keep them between new games?

64x64
Posted
#1
Welcome to the forum and I hope you're having fun with your 7th Continent.
According to the manual, nothing is carried from one run to the next. It's important to note that the cards overrule the manual.
You can definitely play carrying your Journal f you want, but i'm afraid you'll be making thing too easy for you.
In my experience, my personal notes and maps were more than enough. I can usually get to the point where I died much more efficiently.
Good exploring!

Calculating the chance table

64x64
Posted
#2
As promised, the revised table.
The 7th Continent Draw Results.

Calculating the chance table

64x64
Posted
#3
There is a mistake in my numbers for 4 Players. I was using int and it's not enough. It takes 3 hours to run so I'll wait for Saturday to run again. Sorry about this.

Where is the 7th Continent ?

64x64
Posted
#4
Another one from Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil!

Calculating the chance table

64x64
Posted
#5
So, I ran the number on 1 to 9 :card_blue:, with 0 to 7 :icon_succes_7: for 1 to 4 players.
The 7th Continent Draw Results.

I wanted to get to 10 draws but it just takes too long, maybe if there is enough interest. I hope it's useful to check your estimates.
I understand trying to differentiate the impossible from the unlikely, but some results have chances of 11 in 14 billion, it's too far removed from 1% or even 0,01%. It's not impossible, but only barely.

Calculating the chance table

64x64
Posted
#6
Yeah, that looks a lot better than my command line, output to txt code. When you are done, you mind sharing the code?

Calculating the chance table

64x64
Posted
#7
Thank you very much for both answers, it was quicker than I expected.

Firebird wrote:
...[French forum] Study about success

Good to know someone already did all the work on this one. I'll try to glimpse something out of that French.

brisingre wrote:
I know you say brute force seems like cheating, but I think this problem is a perfect candidate for monte carlo estimation.

I'll study the monte carlo estimation, but for 1 to 7 draws it's only 54 million combinations. Even repeating to calculate 0 to 6 :icon_succes_7: it won't take 10 seconds. If I can get a handle on it I'll try crazy draw sizes.

Calculating the chance table

64x64
Posted
#8
Recently I decided to learn how to calculate the chance table in the manual and it's harder than it looks. It can be brute forced but it feels like a cop-out. When I began I was convinced that there was an elegant way to get the probability to get X Stars from Y Draws, and there kinda is: Multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution.
But even with this there is 58 combinations of symbols that get you at least a Star with 2 Draws. Not only it's a ungodly number of probabilities I still don't know if I can just add together, it dosen't look good for 3, 4, 5, etc, Draws.
Anyone knows how to do this or has made a similar attempt?
Thanks.